Got an inside track to who’s going to win the Republican and/or Democrat caucus in New Hampshire today? At Predictify.com you can make a few pennies if you’re right, but hurry and get your votes in.
There is a star system based on user participation ranging from a bronze star at 100 points to a platinum star for 10,000 points. With roughly 30 minutes involvement at the site I’ve made 85 cents and have 62 community points. Being that the minimum payout is $20, talk to me in like, well, a long time to see if Predictify pays. The top earning person on the site has made $113.76 and 76 people have made over $20 as of this writing. In other words, this is not a moneymaking opportunity site.
Community points are received for activities at the site like:
- 10 points: submitting a premium question (this costs $1 per prediction)
- 5 points: referring a new user
- 5 points: submitting a free question (only 200 responses can be received)
- 3 points: send a friend invite that is accepted if you click the Predictify graphic above, that has my referrer code in it)
- 3 points: post a comment
- 1 point: submit a prediction.
It’s strange that the least amount of points is attributed to the most vital part of the site: the predictions. Yes, you need outcomes to predict, but are the questions worth five times the amount of the predictions themselves? I can understand submitting premium questions being more valuable because that’s one of the ways the site is being monetized, but I’d argue that the # of points for predictions, particularly predictions from those who have a higher percentage of predicting the outcome should receive more points.
Predictify does incent those who predict the outcomes more correctly by paying them a higher percentage of the premium questions. I’m at the Scholar level (50-74% accuracy) for Politics, which means if I answer a premium question correctly in this category I’ll receive 1.5 multiplier of the payout. The highest level one can achieve is Guru (90-99% accuracy) which receives 2.0 multiplier. Again, don’t get too excited about the money angle, because there is a small percentage (~5%) of premium questions available.
I didn’t see any banner or contextual ads at Predictify. It appears the only way the site is making money is from taking a cut of the premium questions but I’m guessing at least with the sports outcome questions they could turn around and be selling the Predictify outcomes on a sportsbetting site (outside the US where online gambling is legal, of course). They prevent others for using free questions in certain ways: “Predictify may not be used for securities replication, odds-making, betting, gambling, or wagering.”
The New York Times has a subdomain using Predictify for the NFL playoffs at nytimes.predictify.com.
Not sure the NY Times tie-in as I don’t see any API, but if/when they decide to release one (?) news of this will probably appear first at the official Predictify blog, which uses TypePad.
Summary and grade
There have been so many voting-type sites come and go over the years that the outlook for Predictify is not good. If the site keeps the current clean design and maintains enough interest, they’ll last longer than most. Definitely need a higher percentage of premium questions to help maintain interest and if an API isn’t available, they need one yesterday. Grade: C+
Remember the wall that switches from TV to scenery in the science fiction movie Total Recall? The scene where Sharon Stone’s character tries to district Arnold Schwarzenegger from paying attention to the TV playing on the wall.
Panasonic, who is responsible for the 150 inch plasma TV at CES shared a concept that sounds similar to that movie scene:
… concept called LifeWall, and something called “You Know Me TV,” which involves having full wall adjustable video screens. This a lot like a concept of full-wall HD screens that Microsoft’s Bill Gates mentioned in his keynote.
Still in search of that “must be there [at CES 2008] to see this” moment. With the cool media advancements of Podtech’s Bloghaus with live video through Mogulus (see mogulus.com/podtech_ces_live), it’s like you are almost in the room talking to the people beating their feet (literally) up and down the show floor.
Update 1/8/08 2:03pm PST: Gizmodo has pictures of the 150-inch TV showing an elephant next to a man. Gives perspective of the size.
By the time you read this the doors to the biggest consumer electronics show in the world will be open in bustling Las Vegas, Nevada. For those who’ve never been there, this is also the technology swag mecca; tons of goodies. If you go to CES, plan to pack an empty suitcase worth of goodies to bring back.
CES 2008 kicked off last night with what is being billed somewhat sadly as Bill Gates “last” CES keynote. He’s hosted the CES keynote 11 times and 8 times consecutively, with the first in 1994. You can watch it at microsoft.com/ces using Microsoft Silverlight platform inside your browser.
Silverlight is Microsoft’s cross OS compatible answer to Flash and being widely toted (by them) as a viable alternative. While writing this post and listening to Gates keynote in a separate tab using Windows Vista Silverlight crashed Firefox. I decided to try Silverlight on the Mac with Firefox instead and see how that went. I’ll update before the end of this post if it doesn’t crash (Update: it didn’t on the Mac, go figure).
Summarizing Gates Keynote
In case you don’t want to sit through the Gates keynote, here’s a brief rundown on what happens.
The Xbox 360 is showing prominently in the living room in the “if you believe in magic” video opening as Microsoft chairman Bill Gates enters the stage. He’s dressed in typical Gates attire, a drab purple sweater. He segues into a spoof video of his last day at Microsoft which is funny. Did he just play Mario on a Guitar Hero guitar? Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bono and others are included.
Afterwards Gates shares statistics that PC sales have increased 13% over the last year and then has offers a demo of a program that makes panaromas out of pictures, looks baked into Windows. And then to Microsoft’s perceived geek tabletop of the future: Surface. I love the idea behind touchscreen activity but touch doesn’t work very well for everything.
A keyboard is really important for typing. I wonder if Surface will display a QWERTY keyboard and let you type on it? How will that would feel typing on a flat surface? I see IGT (disclaimer: I own IGT stock) is one of the Surface partners. Does this mean we’ll see this used a lot more in future slot machines?
Robbie Bach comes out on stage next and shares stats on Xbox Live and other media properties. Microsoft has now passed the 10 million subscribers mark and they currently sell more online content than the Wii and PS3 combined.
Zune - The new versions are doing well according to Bach. Microsoft believes Zune has become a clear alternative to iPod. Zune Social now has 1.5 million members. There is some discussion of Zune cards which are similar to Xbox Live gamer cards, only focusing a la last.fm on activity around/inside Zune like your favorite songs and artists (e.g my zune card is located at: http://social.zune.net/member/XBoxTDavid).
Next up: Gates on the future - he holds a device that you can point at people, places and things and it recognizes them. Reminded me of scanning bar codes on the useful inventory program Delicious Library.
Close on a rocking note
Bach and Gates bring out Guitar Hero in a $20 bet. Bach has a famous Xbox Live player playing Welcome to the Jungle and Gates brings in a ringer: Slash! The crowd has what sounded like to me the biggest keynote applause of the night for the former Guns ‘N Roses guitarist. Microsoft upstaged by a guitar legend?
The Slash applause factor sums up the keynote which was lackluster. Nothing that new or revolutionary. If this is Gate’s last keynote ever, it went out with a whimper.
Update 1/7/08 10am PST: Wow, looks like I’m not the only one unimpressed with the keynote. Duncan at Techcrunch says it sucked. Let me save you some more time by showing you one of the best parts: the Gates last day video below:
If news that 11 spammers have been indicted over pump-and-dump stock schemes doesn’t make you even more skeptical of financial tips from strangers, maybe the following story will.
I received this message from TC through Zecco this morning:
Hi, new to investing and was wondering if you would give some tips which would be a good newsletter to subscribe to for my short and long term trading? Is this robot Bull**** or does it work. Thanks for your time.
The “robot” TC is describing is advertised as a Google contextual ad showing at Zecco (pictured atop) and a clickthru leads to the site along the right DayTradingCoach.com (sorry, no link).
I had never heard of this program but am immediately skeptical of any deal which is presented like this on a web page. It’s in the whole get rich quick format which you see on thousands of different one page pitches. Too many sites which use this format have gotten rich off selling information that can usually be found with some specific internet searches, not rich from the information itself.
Being a geeky guy, I was intrigued if I could find this “robot” for sale anywhere. Can you actually buy the “robot?” It doesn’t appear from my searches that you can, but hey, you can buy a newsletter.
Surprise, surprise, all that Michael and Carl want is your email address and name. There’s a “don’t worry we won’t sell your name and address” disclaimer at the bottom of the page. I decided on TC’s behalf to enter in a specially tagged email address and see what their email autoresponder sent my way.
The first email was a validation link from somebody named “Jens Clever.” This isn’t the Beav’s mom (June Cleaver), and was coming from the following address:
Trading Coach LLC
100 Wall Street, New York, NY 10005, USA
Before clicking the validation I would be giving this organization permission to send me information, I wanted to sniff around a bit more. I was on a mission to find this stock robot promised in the Google served ad, not be sent in a circle buying into newsletter offers. I perform some Google searches for “Trading Coach LLC” and see what others on the web were saying. I was led to the site spamstocktrader.com which tracks a fictitious portfolio of buying and selling spam stocks. Now check out the email disclaimer reposted by spamstocktrader (emphasis mine):
You are hereby advised that Daytradingcoach.com / Trading Coach LLC / Jens Clever is receiving a cash fee of two thousand and thirty two dollars from the company shown above (or its agent) as compensation for the distribution of this email.
$2,032 for distributing information about a stock trade in an email. TC, are you paying attention to this? You don’t need to be a farmer to smell this manure. No thanks, Jens Clever, I passed on giving you my email address so you could send me stock tips that you were being paid to put in emails.
The spider web of email finance newsletters
Now back to the original web page. Page two was another web page going on and on about a (second?) newsletter. Imagine that, another page with another sales spiel for, yes, a newsletter selling hot stock tips.
But where is this amazing “robot” that the ad teased? Apparently the “robot” is just used by the people who write these emails? Is it a “robot” that must only output information when money is scanned into it?
Sorry there is no bot for sale, only a newsletter with “468 spots left” so act quick! I wonder if the next prospect who comes along sees 468 spots left too or is this some random number for each prospect? Are you kidding? A newsletter with a limited number of subscribers? I’ve never heard of any email newsletter that was only allowed to a limited number of subscribers, have you? Digital limited, I guess, just don’t expect any of those subscribers to forward to their friends and family.
And then another request for a name and email, only this time no disclaimer that my name and email address wouldn’t be whored out:
Still only interested in the robot, not subscribing to some newsletter. I passed on filling out the second email. Ironically enough, Michael’s office is in downtown Seattle “across from City Hall” according to the web page at the following address:
Global Marketing Company LTD
93 S. Jackson Street #56595
Seattle, WASHINGTON 98104-2818, UNITED STATES
Oddly, the phone number offered isn’t a Seattle-based 206 area code number, it’s a number from the UK. . Here’s a link to a Google hybrid map of the area or embed below for those with readers that allow IFRAME:
Michael offers availability of his physical address to the lifetime subscribers of his newsletter. Pay only $47 and you can stop by and see him during office hours any time. I should go down to 93 S. Jackson Street #56595 and see what’s actually there. Being it’s Sunday, it would have to be a work day. Maybe someday when I’m down that direction I’ll drop in and see if Michael is available.
Moral of the story for TC and others
I’m sure by now TC who I’ll be pointing to this post in a response will see what you need to do with advertisements and offers: verify the information and sources are credible. Perform Google searches and see what others are saying about the service. Due diligence.
I’m not suggesting there aren’t any stock newsletters or that the ones mentioned above might occasionally offer stocks you can actually make money by following their tips but you have to ask yourself if those tips were so great overall, so irresistibly financially attractive, why would they be selling the information? Wouldn’t they would be using those tips to make themselves a fortune and not be focusing on the very profitable business of getting paid to share these stocks in paid newsletters?
In our ongoing stock competition between my wife and I, both our portfolios are available for the world to see for zero, nadda, nothing, not even one penny. Open, transparent and including dollar amounts, # of shares when we bought and when we sold, and even notes about each trade. I’m far and away no stock expert and don’t write or sell newsletters offering stock tips, but I’m happy to offer three common sense guidelines for those new to stock investing: research, research, research.
Yes, that’s the same word repeated, but it’s the truth. TC, and friendly readers, if I was to trust somebody online that I didn’t know with making financial decisions, I’d look for a similar level of transparency about what stocks are being bought and sold. I’d examine the history and compare that to the information being shared in his/her/their newsletter. I’d perform Google searches and see what others who bought these newsletters are saying and how transparent they’re being about their own results from following the advice. Research, research, research.
Let’s close by going back to TC’s questions at the top of this post. I don’t subscribe to any paid stock newsletters so I’m not a good source to ask for what the best ones out there are for short term and/or long term trading. I do most my research through the search engines, analyzing companies including both past and recent news articles. In some cases my direct customer experience will compel me to buy or sell a stock.
As for if the “robot” mentioned in the ad is BS? Draw your own conclusions from the information available. Speaking purely for myself, if I could buy this bot somewhere and it wasn’t prohibitively expensive, I’d try it out and share the results — for free — not in any paid newsletter.
Maybe some readers have had positive experiences with paid newsletters? I understand Fool.com has a paid newsletter. At least that’s a name that’s been around awhile, TC, but no clue as to how good or bad the performance has been there. Just be careful out there. That’s the best advice any stranger or friend can give you involving any financial tip on the web.
Something tells me John Travolta, the Bee Gees and the disco era all inspired the following wild invention (Update: even though these all came after the date of the patent: 1971? Must have been channeling!).
AmazonMP3 may start seeing DRM-free tracks from Sony BMG at some point in 2008. Sony, a company with a checkered proprietary past is planning on dropping DRM on at least “some” of their library. The some with DRM-free tracks remains a big obstacle for all the music companies. Lots of library gaps. This could happen sooner than later too.
Sony BMG, a joint venture of Sony (SNE) and Bertelsmann, will make at least part of its collection available without so-called digital rights management, or DRM, software some time in the first quarter, according to people familiar with the matter.
From the sounds of this Sony is dipping toes in the water and not taking the full plunge, but we’ll have to wait and see how many artists and songs make it onto AmazonMP3 and iTunes.
Not sure about you, but I don’t want Sony to stop at DRM-free music. I’d like to see them get off the backs of the homebrew developers building games for the PSP. And what kind of content creation will be allowed, if any, on the upcoming Sony HOME service through the Playstation Network? Would be nice if they’d open that up as well and offer something similar to what Second Life offers.
Since Sony is the last of the four major music companies to agree to offer DRM-free tracks, the path has been cleared for a future of someday being able to legally purchase MP3 for all the music you enjoy. I’d say currently it’s maybe 30% of the music I like (rock and roll) is available legally for sale on MP3 at AmazonMP3. A lot of incomplete artist libraries at iTunes and AmazonMP3. Can’t blame the music companies for not offering every artist as there are still some holdouts like the Beatles (I thought the Beatles had promised to get their music out there digitally, what’s the hangup?).
It would be nice to see this number jump to 95%+ by 2010. How much of the music you enjoy is available via MP3?
Update 1/7/08 8:01am PST: In the second quarter Reuters is reporting that Napster is going to start offering MP3 files for sale. Talk about returning to roots.
If the planets align I’m on the verge of a surprise announcement. More on that in #4 below if you want to scroll.
Whew! This post and me thanking you, friendly reader, for an exciting 2007 at this blog is way past due. The last couple weeks I’ve been more in holiday mode than working mode and some dust is kicking up as my nose gets back down and hits it.
1. RSS aggregator: who and what’s being used as a reading list
Like many others the new year switchover has me re-evaluating the prior year goals. Let’s start where we did in 2007 with how I plan to handle RSS subscriptions this year. Am I subscribed to you? Should I be? How can I be?
From 2007 in reBlog:
to 2008:
Yes, I’m still using reBlog as my primary RSS reader. Feeds subscribed here are my regular reads and will be likely to be jumping points or segways from new posts in 2008. Last year I waved “goodbye” to my current subscriptions and started fresh. This year I copied over the subscriptions at the end of 2007. It was a relatively small number (74) and quite manageable. Down to 73 as of this writing because I unsubscribed from one source.
In 2008 as part of my ongoing Twitter experiment that began 82 days ago (see left sidebar of homepage for counter), I’ve spent the last few days subscribing to 500+ blogs, podcasts or vlogs of those subject to the following criteria:
1. Must be primarily original content. No reblogs, spam/splogs, automated, etc.
2. Blog/podcast/vlog must primarily be in English (only language I speak fluently).
3. Must follow me and remain following on Twitter (I try to follow more than follow me).
Many of these are brand new, first time subscriptions for me.
I subscribed to these Twitter contact feeds in Google Reader and am using that exclusively to go through the feeds on a daily basis. I’m planning to treat reading these feeds similar to how I follow Twitter: a let it flow, let it flow strategy, which should scale (hopefully). The posts that I find interesting will be shared in my Google Reader shared feed, which gives Twitter contacts the ability to see which of their posts I enjoyed in a very transparent fashion. If anybody reading this doesn’t want their posts to appear in the Google Shared feed then let me know and I’ll unsubscribe from your feed.
In an attempt to provide similar information last year I played in the Hmm Labs with a digg-style system that used posts seeded from reBlog, but that was based on the pligg software and was too slow and buggy. That system is going to get the axe and I’ll probably use the domain for something related to promoting the posts of my favorite reads.
2. The state of Hmmcast
Some of you have probably noticed my goal to do the Hmmcast every work day save for vacations worked out good until September when I got better equipment and attempted to create and share more high quality video. Quality of the video went up dramatically but days went by and soon weeks and finally all of last month without new Hmmcasts being published.
I’ve come to the realization that until I can either focus on this nearly full time or am retired, it’s not realistic for me to do this type of videoblog with the production values I wanted on a regular posting schedule. Perhaps if I had help, but not primarily by myself and while Hmm does turn a profit, there isn’t enough money yet to hire somebody to help with a videoblog that wasn’t bringing in any revenue. It’s not that the Hmmcast is about money to me, I love doing the vlog, but I have two businesses to run and can’t spend hours — literally — producing something every day that doesn’t give back at least some form of revenue.
This doesn’t mean the Hmmcast is dead by any means in 2008.
It does mean that it will likely go back to a frequency of weekly instead of daily, starting in the not too distant future (how’s that for vague and murky?). I’d like to do something more spontaneous like I did yesterday with Modulus. A live video with perhaps a little less production value covering Hmm-related items. Or maybe it will go back to an audio-only podcast covering favorite comments from you, posts or reads from the Google Shared feed perhaps, of the week. I like the idea of using the Hmmcast to further promote/highlight good comments and reads from others.
We went from having 30 Hmmcast episodes to 180 and I learned a ton about how much work goes into producing a daily videoblog. I already had a lot of respect for daily vloggers which work hard at their craft. Anybody can go in front of their webcam and say a few things and hit publish, those aren’t the vlogs I’m talking about. It takes time, good equipment and skill to create and edit something entertaining in high quality and publish five days a week. Tip of my hat to these vloggers.
Here’s your chance to give some feedback on the future direction of the Hmmcast. What would you like to see from it? Do you like the idea of infrequent videos with high production values? How about more spontaneous live stuff like yesterday? Do you miss the weekly podcast (audio-only) version?
3. Hmm Labs
I was a bit surprised by the activity in 2007 of the seldom mentioned, seldom updated Hmm Labs. While only one of the experiments in the lab actually was implemented live on the site in 2007, some favorable feedback was received to the concept which encourages me to explore in greater depth in 2008.
Some of you were more interested in the tinkering behind the scenes than I expected. I think at least one major new project will appear in 2008 in the Hmm Labs first and if all goes well rolled out here on the site.
As mentioned with the Hmmcast, there isn’t a budget which allows for anything too large in scope, but there are a few key things I’d like to see done with MakeYouGoHmm that would encourage more interaction and sharing of hmm-inspiring content around the web.
4??? And the surprise announcement … is ….
Last year there were five items, but I’m keeping my goals fewer in number this year.
Now back to that surprise announcement I teased about at the start of this post: if all goes through things should be finalized by the end of January. I don’t want to say anything yet because it’s not a 100% done deal.
It is something that will impact this blog to some degree in 2008 which is why I’m bringing it up here. I don’t think it will impact the actual blog output (# of posts / frequency) too much, but it could impact some of the content that I write about, or at least how I write about some things. It could also pull this blog in a very interesting and unexpected direction and open up some avenues not previously available to explore.
You’re welcome to speculate in the comments below and I can play politician (hey, it’s that time of year) and deny the rumors and speculation. Try to keep it somewhat clean though, as it’s not anything scandalous. Even if this deal should fall through, I will post about the details in full either way.
In closing, thanks to those who keep reading and subscribing and welcome to the new people I’m meeting both here, on other sites and offline. Without you it’s like writing on an out of order bathroom stall.
It’s a live video with chat service (pictured above). You can view it below live, maybe, if I’m still broadcasting live when you read this.
One of the things that I like about this service is that it’s easy to setup. I set everything up that you see above in less than five minutes. One of my favorite features is the scripting function for overlays. You can insert RSS feeds which if you click through when it’s still live you’ll see tech headlines from the Google News RSS feed.
Auto-pilot when your show isn’t live
You can also arrange clips that you record live to show in the “auto-pilot” when your show isn’t live. Even if you missed when I was on there live you can see the recorded segment in rotation. I could go in there and add some Hmmcast videos as well. I’m going to play around with this more.
I didn’t like how the embed default code worked onload so I changed the variable on=false. This way you have to implicitly click the “on” button inside the post rather than just visiting the page and having it work.
I like Robert Scoble’s most recent fight with Facebook over data portability that led to his account being disabled but don’t like how he went about starting it.
We’ve rallied in the past against how some websites devalue our time, using us to make them money (digg) and trying to handcuff us to the door by limiting export options (Facebook). One thing I’ve come to appreciate with Twitter is their API which when it’s working gives any Twitter user the ability to export just about everything you do there. Even if you think Twitter is stupid, it’s hard to argue against an open API like that.
The problem many have with Facebook is how easy it is to get information in there and how difficult it is to export. Go there, interact with your friends, but be careful what you do when leaving. They also insist that you must use your legal name, but only seem to apply that to non-popular people. If you’re not a web celebrity and not using your legal name, expect your account to be dropped.
Back to Scoble who decided to demo an unauthorized script from Plaxo that scraped his Facebook contact’s name, email address and birthdays which is against the Facebook terms of service (TOS). Facebook discovered the script running and promptly suspended Scoble’s FB account.
As I pointed out to him on Twitter, Scoble has a history of violating the TOS of other websites/services. I was disappointed to see from the many different bloggers writing about this on Techmeme so few pointing to Scoble’s history of openly admitting TOS violations. Are memories this short or is data portability more important than basic respect of agreements you make? When you agree to a EULA or TOS, you are making an agreement for how you’ll conduct yourself. Scoble makes these agreements and uses and evangelizes the services and then decides when he doesn’t like something it’s ok to violate it on principle because the company is wrong.
It’s very remeniscient of the time he let his underage son play in 2nd Life even after being told that it was against the rules.
1) hissy fit
2) apology
3) profit.
Steven Hodson also remembers when Scoble brought his son Patrick into the adult grid of Second Life? Whether or not we agree/disagree having a separate grid for adults and teens is a good idea that’s the agreement. While generally I think Scoble is a likeable human character, complete with imperfections like all of us, this is one side of Scoble that I don’t care for at all. He openly violates agreements because he doesn’t agree with them. He seems very wishy washy with his word. Take how he kept his Plaxo NDA under wraps until he “was released” and yet he doesn’t hesitate violating TOS?
So if Facebook allows you to extract information about your Facebook friends via their APIs, why would Robert Scoble need to run a screen scraping script? The fact is that the information returned by the Facebook API about a user contains no contact information (no email address, no IM screen names, no telephone numbers, no street address). Thus if you are trying to “grow virally” by spamming the Facebook friend list of one of your new users about the benefits of your brand new Web 2.0 site then you have to screen scrape Facebook.
By using the Service or the Site, you represent and warrant that you are 13 or older and in high school or college, or else that you are 18 or older, and that you agree to and to abide by all of the terms and conditions of this Agreement.
The ethical choice if Scoble disagrees with the TOS isn’t to openly violate and then use it as an opportunity to further promote himself and agenda even if that agenda is worthwhile. This is what Robin Hood did, right? He robbed from the rich (Facebook) and gave to the poor (the vast majority of Scoble’s gathered 4,999 contact names, emails and birthdays).
Nick Carr makes an excellent point about how Scoble may have thought this information was his, others may not feel the same way:
I have no doubt that Scoble didn’t mean any harm, but in what sense are names, email addresses, and birthdays not “personal information”? The important question isn’t what Scoble intended to do with the information. The important question is this: Will others who use such scraping scripts necessarily have benign intentions? And the answer is: No.
What Scoble did by allowing his teenage son into the adult grid of Second Life was neither professional or polite. He knew there was a teen grid and yet he intentionally allowed his son to use the adult grid and promoted this fact. He admitted he knew this was against the rules but he did it anyway.
And here he’s doing it all over again with this Facebook drama. Yes, he’s right that data portability is important, but he’s wrong to use sites/services where he openly disagrees with the TOS. And then when the company takes action against him, use it as a platform for self-promotion.
Scoble pointed me to opensocialweb.org as a response to if he approached Facebook directly before violating their TOS. The Open Social Web lays out the following principles:
Sites supporting these rights shall:
* Allow their users to syndicate their own profile data, their friends list, and the data that’s shared with them via the service, using a persistent URL or API token and open data formats;
* Allow their users to syndicate their own stream of activity outside the site;
* Allow their users to link from their profile pages to external identifiers in a public way; and
* Allow their users to discover who else they know is also on their site, using the same external identifiers made available for lookup within the service.
These are noble guidelines and I agree with them all. However, because Facebook apparently doesn’t agree with these and has a TOS defining this as a violation the choice is clear: use the service and live with it or leave. Scoble decided he wanted to leave, but the caveat is he wanted to leave with the information he had already agreed to leave with them.
Wishy washy.
Don’t worry about Scoble’s squeaky wheel, it will get grease
Mark my words, Facebook will back down and reinstate his account not because he didn’t violate the TOS and deserve having his account suspended. Not because FB actually believes and supports data portability, but because it’s Robert Scoble going on CNBC and running off at the mouth about it.
Scoble gets my support for the fight for data portability, but he gets two thumbs way down for the tactics he’s employed.
Update 2:02pm PST: Predictably Facebook has already caved and reactivated Scoble’s account. They say it’s part of the normal appeals process and since Robert as agreed not to use a script like this again, that’s why they are reactivating his account.
2:34pm PST: Scoble held an impromptu live video with chat show/blogger press conference where he answered questions from the crowd using Mogulus. Good demo for their video and chat service actually.
I asked Scoble if he respected TOS and he responded by asking if I drive 55? Strange analogy considering I know he doesn’t drive by cops giving them the middle finger while speeding, but whatever.
Congratulations to Kara for turning her $500 deposited in July 2007 into $544.93, a 8.99% return in our 2007 stock competition. She had better performance than me that ended 2007 with $522.78, a 4.36% return. Here is Kara’s competition portfolio:
Here is my competition portfolio:
We both traded 11 stocks during the time, with her still holding one (JOSB) and me holding two (ZL which is way down and NLY which is up). Since our balance is under $2,500 per the new Zecco rules any trades we make now will incur a $4 commission.
Hypothetical: if we had paid $4 Zecco commissions on each trade
To illustrate how much commissions can negatively impact a portfolio, paying $4 commissions on all our 2007 trades would have resulted in an overall loss for both portfolios. Since the commission applies to both buy and sell: I had 11 buys and 9 sells = 20 total trades. Kara had 11 buys and 10 sells = 21 trades.
Me: 20 trades x $4 = $80
K: 21 trades x $4 = $84
= $164 commissions divided into total of both portfolios: $1067.71 (15.36% commissions)
And instead of a balance of $1,067.71 we’d only have $903.70 and be sitting on two of three stocks that are currently in losing positions. Using that scenario it would have been better to put the $1,000 in a savings account than play the stock market. Although this is on a smaller money scale, it shows how difficult the stock market can be to make money. With the addition of the commission in 2008, it’s going to be even more challenging.
The 2007 prize
When asked what she wanted as a prize for beating me in the 2007 competition Kara replied, “take our kids shoe shopping.” Man, I got off easy. I was willing to buy her something for at least the difference between our portfolios. (Note: I still will).
Speaking of the kids, they don’t go back to school until tomorrow? Strange. Why aren’t they going back today? Is there an assumption this is an after New Year’s travel (or recuperation for those who partied) day?
2008 competition begins
We’re going to continue our competition into 2008 with the same setup. As for prizes, same deal: if she wins again, I’ll buy her something using the value of the difference in our portfolios or vice versa.
You are welcome to and encouraged to follow along with the trades we’re making on our Google Finance shared page. The quotes are delayed 20 minutes.
I also am sharing my competition trade activity through Zecco social (my wife currently is not), which provides third party verification that, yes, I am buying and selling the stocks listed on the Google Finance shared page. Zecco doesn’t actually show the dollar amounts or number of shares.
With my permission, they picked me as one of their featured investors (pictured above), thanks Zecco! You can add me as a friend, if you like, from my Zecco profile page.
While on the transparency front, as of this writing I also own the following stocks that are not part of our ongoing competition and are not traded through Zecco: AAPL, EXPE, GOOG, IACI, IGT, SHOR, VCLK and YHOO. For newer readers, I do disclose in each blog post where relevant when writing about these companies.
Free real time stock quotes
If you wanted to see a more real time view of either a real or fantasy stock portfolio you could use something like freerealtime.com.
I used Free Real Time with the Apple Web Clip function in Safari to make a dashboard widget and just have to hit the Apple key + R to refresh to see how the portfolio is doing during trade days. Since my main machine is Vista, I wonder if there’s a Vista gadget that does something similar? If you know of one please let me know in the comments.
Overall I’m satisfied with the results in 2007, especially with the instability of the market the last six months, but I’d like to see at least either my wife, I or both get over $1,000 by the end of 2008. If our portfolios combined a year from now could reach the $2,500 minimum, even better.
How did your portfolio(s) perform in 2007? No need to share dollars, but percentages would be nice. Happy, unhappy or satisfied?
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I received this message from TC through Zecco this morning:
