Robots, unemployment and the future impact of image processing |
This is a very compelling and yet disturbing essay: Robotic Nation by Marshall Brain. It made me think, what will happen when robots can drive, flip burgers, clean toilets, etc? What would it be like if the unemployment reaches 30-40%? Will this future automation reduce the cost of goods and services? Or will money become unimportant like it is in Gene Roddenberry’s future vision? What about Moore’s Law that says that CPU power doubles every 18 - 24 months? At this rate robots will have the CPU power to perform more and more human-skilled jobs within the next 20-30 years.
The whole subject of image processing is fascinating and I started thinking about how robots could effect my insurance agency and the insurance industry in general. It is no secret that insurance companies are the second most wealthy business in the country. Next to the US government that prints the money, the second entity to fold would be the insurance companies. While single companies might have financial problems, the industry as a whole is very strong and very financially solid.
With no auto accidents, there would be no need for collision insurance, as that covers collision with cars and objects and robots would prevent this from happening. Comprehensive rates could be lowered as well because robots might be better at avoiding rock chips, and as for vandalism and malicious mischief perhaps better robot security system could record and prosecute the offenders. And as for Liability premiums? If you don’t crash and hurt people or property, there is little need for auto liability coverage. This could be devasting to insurance agents who have huge books of autos and rely on these commissions as bread and butter income.
Life insurance premiums would be affected, but not nearly as dramatically. Travel related accidents only account for a small percentage of death claims. Most deaths are the cause of heart-related conditions and cancer. Perhaps these robots could be used to help monitor and reduce these types of deaths? However, if people lived longer then that means they might just be poor longer. Also, since Life Insurance agents don’t make much commissons after the first 1-3 years (like 1-3% usually) on the premium, robots wouldn’t affect this too much.
Would homeowners insurance still be required by banks if robots monitored all aspects of the home? Would robots be able to prevent fires? What about natural disasters? Somehow I don’t think there would be much affect in the homeowners insurance market unless robots could stop mother nature. This means insurance agents should continue to build on their book of home insurance policies.
Commercial insurance would be affected — especially commercial auto. Robots would be making sure none of those expensive accidents happened.
I sure hope that we think enough so as to not invite a Terminator-type future by using something like Isaac Asimov’s three laws of robotics. Roger Clarke writes an excellent essay using Asimov’s laws of robotics as a basis for reality with robots.
My thinking is use robots for medicine, for safety, but I’m concerned about 30-40% unemployment and not at all sure about using robots for replacing low level skill jobs. It’s a deep, very pensive subject, but something our children’s children very well will have to deal with.









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