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April 23, 2005

LookSmart days on the exchange numbered

search engines, finance — by TDavid @ 1:12 pm PST

Beyond a token amount of test searches, I’ve never used LookSmart. Seems like too many others feel the same way — or at least investors do — about the value of the service in the crowded search engine market.

To continue to be listed on the exchange, LookSmart’s shares must trade above $1 for at least 10 of the next 180 days.

So Looksmart exchange listing days are literally numbered.

Comparatively, how big is Vonage in VoIP space?

finance — by TDavid @ 7:17 am PST

Andy Abramson points out that Vonage Is Not The Biggest VoIP Player and links to an article about Softbank with their BB phone from Japan that reportedly has 4.5 million subscribers. In fact, the article claims 80% of all VoIP users are in Japan.

We’re quite satisfied to date being among the 500,000 or so Vonage subscribers, even though I feel the company is ripe for a buyout from somebody. Comcast, anyone?

April 21, 2005

Google financially on fire!

search engines, finance — by TDavid @ 10:14 pm PST

On fire in a good way, that is. A possibly obscure NBA Jam reference here: when a player in that game scores several times in a row without the other team scoring that player is said to be “on fire” — well, this describes Google who went public last year and opened around 100 bones a share and as of this writing is $204/share. Couple that with their reported first quarter earnings:


Revenue in the quarter nearly doubled, up 93 percent over the year before period to $1.256 billion. Net income for the quarter more than quadrupled, increasing 477 percent over the first quarter of 2004 to $369 million, or $1.29 per share.

Microsoft should not be worried about what Steve Jobs is saying at Apple, they should be worried about the big G, which is getting bigger. And bigger. And bigger.

Wright: “Microsoft isn’t thrilling me anymore.”

finance — by TDavid @ 2:05 pm PST

Jeremy — who recently dropped the “c” in his name — Wright thinks the thrill is gone for Microsoft. So what does Wright think is wrong with the big M?

Microsoft simply isn’t thrilling me anymore. They used to. I’ll still happily defend Microsoft when the time is right, will evangelize dozens of products to the right people and so forth. But it’s less joyful, and slightly more forced, than it used to be. So, c’mon Microsoft, thrill me again. I’ll be one of your best evangelists forever if you just give me a reason to be! Being at this week’s Search Champs would have been a great way to start that process, but it’s by no means the last.

Don’t feel bad about not being invited to Search Champs, Jeremy. I am in Microsoft’s backyard and wasn’t invited either. If there was some special form or secret handshake somewhere then that info passed me by as well.

I’m also platform agnostic, and maybe that annoys some of the camp in Redmond who want people to sing the M$ body electric. If M$ does something that sucks I’m not going to pull punches, so if that costs me invites to events like Search Champs, well then guess it does. Same goes for Apple or Linux; they certainly aren’t protected from criticism. The converse is that if I like something from any of these companies I’m going to praise it to the world — free advertising.

Jeremy, Microsoft’s stock isn’t all that thrilling at the moment either. When comparing the two stocks recently, I bought Apple instead of Microsoft. The first day after my purchase (as if a message from the M$ gods), Apple stock dropped, but it is rebounding now. Apple is just trending better over the last five years than Microsoft. For those more details on this decision, see this prior post: I’m buying Apple instead of Microsoft stock

Microsoft will get a shot in the arm next month when they tell us more about Xbox 2. Let’s just hope that part of that conversation involves a release date in 2005. Also, IE 7 is going to help stop at least some of the bleeding in the browser market although I’ve heard from someone who has seen it that so far IE 7 isn’t going to be a Firefox killer.

Meanwhile, MSN Spaces will keep signing up people who aren’t bloggers to blog and yet not getting any real significant accolades or juice from the ’sphere. That’s the big problem with catering primarily to people who don’t blog with a blogging tool: you won’t get other people regularly blogging using different tools reading and/or linking to these blogs as much. Too bad, because I’m sure there are many MSN Spaces gems that will primarily only see promotion within MSN Spaces.

And where does MSN search end up? My prediction is the advice they received will be only marginally useful. If they had asked me to attend the event and asked for my opinion I could have listed at least 10 things that they could do to MSN search that would help it improve and be more competitive with Yahoo — who is their closest competiton — and ultimately Google, which is the 900 pound gorilla.

April 19, 2005

Local online advertising growing

spam, finance — by TDavid @ 10:43 am PST

It’s a good time to look more carefully at local websites and the possible advertising revenue that could be generated from them as well as advertising on local websites for your business (if applicable).

Local online spending growth will be 46 percent higher in 2005 than 2004’s $2.7 billion. That sum represents a 28 percent increase over 2003 spend. Some 2,177 local media properties were analyzed as part of the report.

We bought the domain name for the town where our offline business is domiciled many years ago. Our plan, though terribly executed so far, has been to use the profit generated (zero to date) and give that money back to the community for things like more books for the school, hanging up the Christmas decorations, etc. Seems like it is time to take another look at this missed opportunity of ours …

April 18, 2005

Adobe Flash?

photoshop it, finance — by TDavid @ 11:08 am PST

Adobe Photoshop, Adobe Illustrator, so why not Adobe Flash or Adobe Shockwave? Adobe apparently might agree with these sentiments, according to a story in Market Watch:

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) on Monday said it plans to buy interactive graphics applications maker Macromedia Inc. (MACR) in a stock-based deal valued at around $3.4 billion in a move it expects to propel the software group into digital markets that include mobile phones.

I like this deal for both parties. I’ve been a huge Adobe fan for quite some time. Photoshop is one of those apps I couldn’t be without in our web business. Flash? It can be cool when used in certain situations like nav menus and applications like Flickr.

(Found via Dave)

Google or Yahoo may acquire TiVo

search engines, finance — by TDavid @ 10:29 am PST

TiVo is, and has been, in financial trouble. It’s no secret or surprise that they are ripe for some help monetarily or possibly even an outright acquistion. This morning CNET is reporting that TiVo is in talks with both Google and Yahoo.


A second person familiar with the talks said TiVo has held talks with both Google and Yahoo about a potential equity investment, including the possibility of an outright acquisition. Any deal would likely be exclusive, this source said, Nothing has been finalized, however, and the talks could yet fall apart.

I’m not sure where Yahoo fits into this strategically except to be there to not let Google buy them. Yes, they do have their video area — broadcast.com — that they bought from Mark Cuban and helped make him the billionaire he is today. Haven’t heard much new on that front, so that is at least one possible area where Yahoo would benefit. Also, let’s not forget the APIs … can you imagine a TiVO / Yahoo API combo? Wow.

Google is trying to make inroads in the video arena and a TiVo acquisition (or partnership is also being hinted at) would make a lot of sense and benefit both companies. If they can pull the trigger, then they need to dump the TiVo hardware division and license the software like they do the Google search appliance.

On January 1, 2005 I wrote:

Somebody big will buy out TiVO and exploit their user loyalty and brand, but not further their development efforts, thus signalling the true beginning of the end for TiVO and meanwhile other PVR makers will learn how to come up with similar compelling features and usability as TiVO without charging a monthly subscription fee. This will be a crippling blow to the ever fragile TiVO business model.

Look what happens if we substitute the word “TiVo” with Blogger? Hmm.

I’m buying Apple instead of Microsoft stock

finance — by TDavid @ 9:44 am PST

Today is my scheduled market order deadline (noon PST) in order to make tomorrow’s automatic Tuesday cycle. Earlier this month I had already decided not to buy any more Value Click (VCLK) stock and replace with Microsoft (MSFT) instead. The more I’ve thought about this, though, and mulled over the company historical, current and potential future strengths and weaknesses, I’ve changed my mind and am going to buy Apple (AAPL) instead.

Why?

Take a look at the graph pictured above showing the financial performance of MSFT (red) vs. AAPL (blue) stock over the last five years. Apple has been more innovative than Microsoft the last five years and the stock is reflecting that. The iPod / iTunes deal has been very successful for Apple and doesn’t seem to show any signs of slowing. The introduction of the Mac Mini has made it possible to more affordably buy an Apple computer. Tiger OS X 10.4 is coming out on 4/29 and has some 200+ features. I’ll be at the Apple store or online at/around this day. I’m looking forward to buying from Apple.

What about Microsoft? They have Xbox 2 coming out — maybe — by year end. Hopefully we’ll find out more on this via MTV and E3 next month, maybe. The Xbox division has slowly been making its way to profitability in a cutthroat console gaming war with Sony, but Sony just released a gem of a portable machine. The rumours are out that Sony’s P3 specs blow Xbox 2 out of the water, so will Xbox 2 be more powerful? Maybe. Longhorn? We are supposed to get this in 2006 — maybe. The Tablet PC is supposed to re-emerge in (more) retail stores by July. Maybe. Visual Studio 2005 was due out but now might not make it until 2006, maybe. Maybe.

Do you see a trend with Microsoft here? A lot of maybes, shipment delays and unanswered questions. This leads this investor (me) into pause mode when considering buying their stock, whereas with Apple I see a good trend over a lengthy five year period, some confirmed product upgrades and launches and the future looking brighter.

Bottom line is I’m not as eager to be buying new products/services from Microsoft as I am Apple at the present time. Despite Scoble’s best attempts to blog a better face for the company, it really hasn’t made much of any difference in the overall stock value. Maybe this is because Scoble has hit some doubles and triples with geeks, early adopters and the like but not so much with the majority of people buying new products and services? I don’t know the answer here, but I do believe that Scoble has put a friendlier, more approachable face on Microsoft than anybody else over there has done in recent memory. Verizon could sure use a Scoble blogging, especially after their CEO makes wild, unnecessary statements like this.

If one is only looking at the numbers it sure appears like Steve Jobs and Apple thumbing their nose up at blogging pretty much to date has been a successful business strategy. I don’t like it, and I’m sure readers who are bloggers won’t like it either, but just look at the numbers.

This is your problem, Microsoft, now listen up: please fix the shipment delays, get your existing and prospective customers excited about something new to actually buy somewhere instead of beta test and the trend can turn. Articles like the one that Dvorak did at PC Magazine about how Microsoft’s practice of buying up patents could be its undoing, aren’t helping. The patent game is a very risky move, but I can see how Microsoft is tired of being sued so much.

None of this is to say that I won’t buy Microsoft stock in the future, but for now I’m holding off until we hear more about some of their products and confirmed shipping dates. They can’t hang their hats on the likes of Halo forever and MSN Spaces, although seemingly a success with a crowd of non early-adopters, is going to have to do much more than push a bunch of tiny Volvo ads to make any serious money and spur on an increased infusion of consumer spending.

April 17, 2005

Verizon CEO flames Wi-Fi and demanding customers

finance — by TDavid @ 10:38 pm PST

We might expect a Verizon CEO to be lukewarm on the concept of city wide free or low cost Wi-Fi, but the quotes in this story from sfgate with the CEO could very well aggravate some Verizon customers (it rubbed me wrong):

“That could be one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever heard,” said Ivan Seidenberg, chief executive officer of Verizon Communications, during a meeting with Chronicle editors and writers on Friday. “It sounds like a good thing, but the trouble is someone will have to design it, someone will have to upgrade it, someone will have to maintain it and someone will have to run it.”

So who cares about San Francisco except the people in San Francisco, right? Wrong. There’s an old saying: the fish stinks at the head. And as a Verizon customer, I’m smelling some stinky fish with these comments.

But it’s not enough for Seidenberg to stop at flaming free or low cost City Wide Wi-Fi, he then aims his sights on those terrible, annoying, demanding customers (sarcasm) complaining about cell dark spots:

“Why in the world would you think your (cell) phone would work in your house?” he said. “The customer has come to expect so much. They want it to work in the elevator; they want it to work in the basement.”

Wow, this guy has some mega-huge stones! I’ve never been a huge phone company fan and would use 100% VoIP if we we wouldn’t lose our established business number (no, it’s not transferable). We threw the phone company out in our home over a year ago and life has been better without their monopolistic charges and constant fiddling with local long distance rates.

“You’re getting the best deal!” They’d tell us, and then we’d talk to someone else and they were getting a better deal than us. We’d call up and complain (not to Verizon, to our prior carrier) and we’d get the lower rate. Crooked!

Thank goodness we’ve switched like 90% of our phone business to VoIP. We do have Verizon becaue its considerably less expensive than OnStar phone minutes — but when our two-year contract is up, I hope to be able to go EDO in this area and wave goodbye (again) to cell phone service. We went a couple months without cell service and it wasn’t the end of the world and I’m confident we could do it again if we could use VoiP through an EDO.

Just a few of the things I don’t like about Verizon: you can’t limit the amount of minutes on an account. We gave our oldest teenager a phone for mostly emergencies and we wanted to limit his access — not possible unless we physically take away the phone. The technology is there to lock it down, but no way do the cell carriers want to offer their customers features like this. Also, you can’t shut down their downloadable pay content. Talk about an open checkbook!

Yeah, we plan to be getting rid of your cell phone service, Mr. Seidenberg. You don’t need us customers at all, we’re just an inconvenience to people like you. The only real question I have is if Seidenberg will still be their CEO when our two year contract is up?

Dan Gillmor is dead on with his title for this story: Jerk CEOs Part 12,434.

April 16, 2005

Get paid to be an online juror

finance — by Kara @ 3:28 pm PST

I signed up for ejury.com a few months ago and then promptly forgot about it until a few weeks ago when I got an email saying that there was a case in my area and to log in and participate. I logged in and followed the instructions and gave my opinions all of which totalled about 20 minutes of my time and then checked back every few days to see if they had the 5o needed online juror responses logged so they could close the case out. Roughly a week later I got an email letting me know the case was closed and I could log in to see the results. I was told that for participating they would pay me $5. I did indeed get a $5 check in the mail a few weeks later. This is really cool, it is based on real court cases that are from whatever area you are located in.


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