MySpace to become another Geocities within 10 years, you read it here first |
Maybe you’ve heard by now that Yahoo is shutting down Geocities. Yes, the same Geocities it paid $3 billion dollars for a mere 10 years ago. The first thing I thought about when I heard this news was MySpace.
Before you laugh out loud, I’m not talking MySpace the darling among teens and music artists today, I’m talking about MySpace 10 years from now. Take a ride in your time machine to the year 2019 because it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if by then MySpace has met the same fate. A lot of MySpace pages are nothing more than Geocities type over-busy pages with sound onjoin. The major difference is MySpace is more ‘social’ whatever that means these days.
I should probably not be in the prediction business because my record is shaky on this front, but I’m feeling good about this one. There will be something cooler than MySpace within the next 10 years and the inevitable shut down will follow. That’s not to say MySpace is a complete waste of time today so don’t think I’m trolling here but I think the sobering news about Geocities being here today gone tomorrow within 10 years – a lifetime on the internet, BTW – should be a wake-up call for MySpace users.
I’d keep a personal blog on self-hosted web space with the stuff that you really want to last any amount of time on the internet. Yeah, it’s more expensive than free, but your kids might be able to see what it is about when they grow up. Hey, maybe even your grandkids.
What do you think, am I wrong? Will MySpace have more longevity than Geocities? If you need another example of a waning giant, look at eBay vs. Craigslist. It’s tough staying relevant, popular and cool online. That’s my takeaway here. Yours?
Update 6/17/2009 7:40am PST: MySpace lays off 30% of its staff (thanks great big geek)
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I agree totally that MySpace is Geocities v2.0 and I don’t think it’ll even take 10 years for it to collapse under its own gaudy weight. Facebook, Twitter, and other even more “social” alternatives will trump MySpace.
Fortunately, I also believe there’ll be a renaissance in more traditional blogs like ours when much of the “social” fervor has died down. Twitter et al are terrific for immediate, often meaningless chatter, but they’re horribly difficult to keep up with and/or go back to older conversations in. They’re like a rapidly-moving river that you drop a leaf in to marvel ever-so-briefly at the ripple. The ripple dissipates and the leaf is quickly swept away to never bee seen again. I like the permanence that a traditional blog offers. And dangit, I’m too verbose for the confines of 140 characters!
Comment by Rob O. — April 24, 2009 @ 8:57 am PST
Rob O - yeah, the whole 140 character thing is creating almost another language, isn’t it? Bringing shorthand to the mainstream. There is at least a viable utility for shorter messages in certain circumstances but I’m not sure the utility of MySpace beyond bands chasing younger audiences. When the youth moves onto the new cool, we’ll find out what else MySpace offers.
Comment by TDavid — April 24, 2009 @ 9:06 am PST
I’m not sure that I 100% agree on this one. With Geocities, there were limited reasons for someone to continue to use the platform to publish. Once other sites offered a better experience, they lost whatever first mover advantage they had.
With MySpace though, even as it loses it’s coolness factor, there is still an incentive for popular users to continue to publish fresh content. Because it is difficult to build up an audience, people will be reluctant to walk away so easily from their hard work. I could see MySpace losing more relevance, but think that there will also be a substantial core to keep it going.
Comment by Davis Freeberg — April 24, 2009 @ 9:28 am PST
Davis - what about eBay and Craigslist? Couldn’t you say the same thing about eBay once upon a time? Traffic ebbs and flows, it’s tough staying popular. As long as a lot of teens are using MySpace the bands will be there. If they leave to something else more cool, say goodbye to the bands and then what will be left?
Comment by TDavid — April 24, 2009 @ 9:30 am PST
Ebay and Craigslist are still both very popular sites. CL could be a multi billion corp if Newmark wasn’t allergic to money. When the web first came out, I remember that there didn’t feel like there was a whole lot of content. Times change, people evolve. Keeping them on a social platform is difficult no doubt, but it’s hard for me to imagine a paradigm shift so radical that Myspace becomes completely irrelevant and shuts down. Last year United Online tried to spin off Classmates.com (the first web 2.0 site) and they were asking a billion for it. They didn’t get it, but their brand has been devasted by Myspace/Facebook and we were still talking a lot of zeros.
Comment by Davis Freeberg — April 24, 2009 @ 10:37 am PST
I actually think it will take more than 10 years for Myspace to officially shut down.
R.I.P. Geocities. We had good times.
Comment by Hilary — April 24, 2009 @ 11:08 am PST
TD, I’m sure this could be something of a reflection of my demographic. As a Gen Xer, I’m equally dismayed at text messaging - if you want to discuss something with me and you already have a phone in your hand, just call me, dangit! Like well-crafted written communication, verbal communication is also quickly becoming a rarity.
Comment by Rob O. — April 24, 2009 @ 11:52 am PST
No, I think your dead on. Places which are “cool” will always succomb to fads and trends. Friendster was the big thing before myspace. Now facebook and twitter are picking up steam. Theres always going to be a new cool site on the block. I doubt any social networking site will ever be popular more than 7-8 years.
Comment by la — April 25, 2009 @ 5:35 pm PST
I would have to disagree with you. Geosites never reached the level of success and popularity that myspace has. Myspace is a valuable social networking site that many companies use, Bands, artists and comedians all have their own page… It is doing so well, I couldn’t imagine it deflating to nothing in ten years.
Comment by Charlie — April 26, 2009 @ 5:41 pm PST
I was saddened to hear about geosites closing down. I think you are right that myspace will head the same way. Then maybe 20 years on facebook?
Comment by broadland — April 27, 2009 @ 3:55 am PST
The following post lists the top 15 web properties in 1999 and 2009 asks which of the following will still be in the list in 2019:
http://technologizer.com/2009/04/23/whatever-happened-to-the-top-15-properties-of-april-1999/
Interestingly:
The current top 15 for historical reference are: Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL, Fox, Ask, eBay, Wikipedia, Facebook, Amazon, CBS Interactive, Apple, Glam, Turner, and Viacom.
Comment by TDavid — April 28, 2009 @ 8:00 am PST
I think myspace will be gone long before 10 years. It was kind of unique when it came out but it seems, certainly here in the UK, facebook came along and took over. It won’t be long before the next and the next and the next and myspace will just be a distant memory.
I guess we will wait and see.
Comment by Olly — April 30, 2009 @ 12:39 am PST
As much of a Myspace fiend as I was, I am now nearly totally off the bus. It took them too long to even try to catch up with the times, and in that time, one of the main reasons I started my blog was largely due to wanting a space on the web with SOME sort of organization and ability to search/find.
Facebook and Twitter really fill in the gaps…and if Facebook (or someone else) were to develop a music application that makes as much sense for bands as Myspace does currently, Myspace would be history. I’m waiting anxiously for that to happen, because I hate going to Myspace to keep up with bands for work and personal purposes.
Comment by Matt — April 30, 2009 @ 2:49 pm PST
I would argue that MySpace and Geocities both failed because of the same reason: lousy management. The fact that they took this long to die is testament to how good the idea is, not how bad.
Comment by Bob — May 3, 2009 @ 3:16 pm PST
Facebook has completely whipped Myspace. You’re right. Myspace is like a cheesy 80’s song. Facebook is like U2. It’s got something that is timeless. I see Myspace as adapting but always being something less than Facebook. I still remember, though, when Myspace was the coolest place to be online.
Comment by leew — May 7, 2009 @ 5:35 pm PST
It was sad to see Geocites go. It would have been nice to see Geocities make arrangements with a similar site to transfer the content if nothing else. ‘Facespaces’?
Comment by Scott Gardner — June 11, 2009 @ 10:17 am PST
MySpace just laid off about 30% of their workforce. The original post has been updated with links to the NYT story.
Comment by TDavid — June 17, 2009 @ 7:43 am PST