How McCain or Obama can win Election 2008 |
There is a slick free Windows program from NBC (thanks frankarr) to be able to download and make your own predictions about how each state’s electoral votes will go. It outputs an XML file which you could share with others. The way I have it scored as far as locked — or close to locked — states:
Obama 252 vs. McCain 212
Looking at this map, you can see I can’t call five states: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa and Colarado.
How could McCain win
I didn’t think McCain had much of a chance until I marked off the states in the map above. For John McCain to win, he needs to take every state marked red on this map as well as the following state(s):
- Florida, Ohio and Indiana (exactly 270)
- Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colarado (275)
Obama 268 vs. McCain 270
How could Obama win
As you might expect from the various polling and new reports, Obama has more ways to win the election. Since he only needs 18 electoral votes with my map above he can do it by any of the following state(s):
- Florida by itself … or
- Ohio by itself (272) … or
- Indiana and Iowa (exactly 270) … or
- Indiana and Colarado (272)
If you think this election if over, it’s not. Odds are in Obama’s favor, but I’ll be following to see if he takes the states I have predicted to be in his favor. Let me know how your predictions for each state turn out.
Update November 4, 2008 6:21am PST: Mac and Linux users - The New York Times offers a web app where you can do something similar.
Did this post make you go hmm?
(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5)
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Yeah, it’s far from over — especially if voters get complacent or discouraged by the crowds. Mail-in ballots in WA have one big advantage in that department, eh, TD?
My wife and I plan to go off our diets to watch the election returns with White Castle cheeseburgers and wine: Champagne for her, and Shiraz for me.
Comment by Sterling Camden — November 3, 2008 @ 2:11 pm PST
Up here in Canada I know quite a few people are rooting for Obama. There are so many people already so jaded over the years that they expect, and even accept the same old crap. I’m hoping that wishful thinking will actually happen this time.
Here’s a recent poll by Gallup:
Comment by creativeherb — November 3, 2008 @ 6:57 pm PST
Sterling - go mail ballots, go! I’ll be glad we can stop seeing ads for Gregoire and Rossi, these two have been duking it out for too long it seems.
creativeherb - I’ve noticed a number of polls in other countries weighing in and favoring Obama. In terms of beginning to repair our relations with other nations I think Obama would be better than McCain but we’ll find out tomorrow how it shakes out.
Comment by TDavid — November 3, 2008 @ 7:24 pm PST
Yes this would be a very interesting election, because both have the chance to win. I hope that this time it will be a fair election which won’t be manipulated by anyone. But I think Obama will win the election.
Comment by Amanda Touchscreen — November 4, 2008 @ 12:41 am PST