Remember a few years back when Bill Gates falsely predicted that email spam would become a thing of the past within two years?

While I’ll admit that email spam has improved a little bit, it is far from gone. In 2004 he also predicted the death of the password. I’m still using passwords, how about you? Then there was Gates prediction that we’d see a $500 Tablet PC for students and speech recognition will be “there” in 2-5 years. Hmm.

For those keeping score, Gates doesn’t have a good batting average making predictions. So what does he do? Make more predictions!

The Seattle PI points to four new predictions by Mr. Gates that will happen within the next five years. His predictions are bolded, my comments are not.

1. All reading will move online as device form factors reach a tipping point in size and simplicity. While I’d agree that this will eventually happen, we’re not going to be there until it’s as easy and friendly as folding a magazine or book. Baking in the sun with some hard to read in direct sun electronic device isn’t going to be welcomed in large numbers — and hasn’t — for longer than five years.

2. Thanks to Internet delivery, TV viewers will see individually targeted advertising. As part of a family that hasn’t had television service for 324 days and have been watching DVDs and games and TV shows through the (legally) available networks online, this one seems possible, however there are way too many television sets out there to become dust magnets in the next five years. There are plenty of people who don’t want to login to watch an episode of American Idol.

There is also a bandwidth quality issue. While I understand we’ll continue to get bandwidth upgrades and the quality of the streaming picture will improve and someday match cable, satellite and over the air networks this isn’t going to cause people to mass exodus for internet TV. I think it might be more like 7-10 years. Sorry Bill you’re close on this one, call it a foul ball. Strike two.

3. Consumers will be the ultimate winners as the old business models for newspapering and print advertising collapse. It’s bad enough that bloggers cover this story ad nauseum, now Gates is filling barf bags. I don’t think we need to wait five years for this to happen, it’s already happening today. Newspapers are going out of business, merging and/or being forced to intensify and improve their web efforts.

But.

The major newspapers like The New York Times will still be here in five years and still printing, still serving happy subscribers. Similar to my response in #1 there are a lot of people who prefer to read news in print, particularly seniors. We’ll call this one a foul popup, Bill.

4. In five years, the number of people consulting the printed Yellow Pages will drop to “near zero.” I laughed out loud when I read this. The Yellow Pages are still very powerful and I don’t see five years breaking that down for people searching for businesses. When the internet is everywhere and everybody carries around devices perhaps then the Yellow Pages usage will drop to “near zero” but Bill is again being too anxious.

There’s a common misbelief that technology adoption moves fast. Sure, technology itself moves fast, but adoption moves slow. Look what’s happening with console video games. The new systems come out but take a couple years to takeover the prior generation systems. Sony is still releasing new PS2 games because much to their chagrin the PS3 isn’t selling as well as the PS2.

Remember how we were all supposed to be using HDTVs? Ha. Do your own self-study and ask your friends how many HDTVs they have and use. We have two HDTVs and four regular TVs. Adoption is slow.

Bill Gates will be stepping down from his post at Microsoft to spend the next phase of his life focused on philanthropy. I hope we don’t keep reading geriatric Gates predictions that never happen. Cannot diminish Gates being a smart man but he can no more tell the future than your nearest 1-800 psychic.

Did this post make you go hmm?

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