Tired of tapping away at the keyboard? Those with carpal tunnel will be nodding, but there hasn’t been a new version of the PC in dozens of years. I hadn’t realized and pondered in depth how long it’s been this way until this morning when reading Betanews article:

“We’re still using the keyboards to enter data, to write out letters, to send an e-mail,” [IDC’s David Daoud] remarked. “It’s pretty old, isn’t it, if you start looking at the technology that we have? Think about that, for a moment. We have had for a long time this concept of the tablet PC, and no one has been able to crack that market. Why is that?

Easy answer: availability and pricing! Remember Bill Gates dreaming that we’d see $500 Tablet PCs? He also said that in “2-5 years” we’d see speech recognition that was there. That was 2005, so it could be as early as this year or as late as 2010. I’ve tried to use speech recognition several times, both with my Tablet PC and with Dragon Naturally Speaking. We’re definitely not there yet. Has it improved? Yes, but it’s still not where it makes sense to cast aside the keyboard.

But availability and pricing are neither of the reasons Daoud gives (emphasis mine):

Because no one has been willing to do the same thing that Apple has done for the iPod: own that market, take it to the next level. Think of it. We’ve had the speech recognition as an input interface for a long time, and yet no one has really taken that into consideration.

Owning the market should be easier now that Vista is here with the Tablet OS. We should be seeing Tablet PCs or at least convertible tablets in greater supply, yes? So far at least in our local retail store area the answer is a resounding no. Take a tour of your the retail stores in your area, what are you seeing? The ratio of traditional laptops to tablets around here is like 20:1. There might be a tablet hanging around in some dark corner display at Best Buy gathering dust. I’ve seen one of the new touch screen PCs and those look intriguing but are they practical at the price ($1,700 USD)? Nope.

Techdirt notes that to date Microsoft’s Ultra Mobile PC (UMPC) has pretty much been a dud. Same problems there: availability and pricing. I’ve said this repeatedly: you can’t sell to the masses expensive technology over the web. People want to walk into local stores, see the product, feel it, talk to salespeople about it. The internet is a wonderful place but it isn’t tactile. Yet.

Perhaps the next version of a PC is an integrated internet that is tactile.

My guess for the next version of the PC
In our bedroom we have a close version of the next version of a PC. Doesn’t have a keyboard but one could be added via USB. It can download and play movies, TV shows and videos in HD quality. Chat with text or voice? No problem. Comes with a hard drive and more storage can be added. The major omission is an internet browser but I suspect that’s coming. Broadcast TV through the internet (IPTV) is coming too. Along with that we’ll have PVR functionality built-in. How many devices does this get rid of? cable/sat box, PVR, game machine, DVD player … yowsa.

Yes, I’m talking about the Xbox 360 Elite we just bought. We have a computer in our bedroom too, a Microsoft Vista powered machine. Which “PC” do you think is getting used more? We have a PS3 too in there which has internet browsing, BTW.

I realize the Xbox is still considered a game machine, but let’s not forget how Microsoft is making it a development box with the Creators Club. This is the place where using speech recognition to control PC functions would be a good fit. This could become the nerve center of the home.

Will things go this way? Not sure, but wouldn’t rule it out. At least in terms of Microsoft, the Xbox is more successful than the UMPC and Tablet PC. I wouldn’t be surprised if Google gets their talons in here somewhere. Maybe they already are with YouTube. And Apple shouldn’t be counted out either, although AppleTV isn’t a disruptive force yet. If they get cozy with Nintendo then it’s time to rumble.

What do you think will be the next version of the PC?

• More Apple Tablet PC speculation
• iPod and iBook class action lawsuits?
• Scoble to evangelize Tablet PC for Apple? Boris thinks so
• iPod nano = nah, no thanks
• Why Linux on Tablet PC?
• Small batch of new iPods ship with Windows virus