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June 13, 2006

The Scoblelizer Replacement pool odds

blogs and podcasting — by TDavid @ 5:24 pm PST
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The who will replace Robert Scoble tickle continues with Valleywag weighing in with a few names. Looks like they might do a daily feature on it for a few days.

As I looked over the existing notable and famous Microsofties, tech blogger landscape and from conferences, events and local meetups here in Seattle a few more names struck me as possibilities. Some are more remote than others, but I decided it would be fun to put the names and let people chime in with feedback on the nominations. I’m also adding names mentioned elsewhere.

The 3,000+ existing Microsoft Bloggers odds: 2 to 1 - while this might be the most boring and obvious choice, it’s arguably the best one. That the Microsoft blogger collective will be replacing Scoble en masse and there will be no single famous blogger, but perhaps many smaller famous ones in certain teams and locations. If I was betting online, and I can’t because it’s now a class C felony here in Washington state, this is where I’d put my money.

Niall Kennedy odds: 3 to 1 - formerly of Technorati, he seems to be getting the most nods from others that I’ve read so far. I thought it was kind of interesting how fast Dave Sifry arrived at this blog to make sure it was known Niall’s responsibilities at Technorati didn’t include the scaling architecture, good or bad. Maybe.

Mini-Microsoft odds: 10 to 1 - though my feelings on this anonymous blogger who is currently laying low in sort of a quasi-retirement status are well known, it’s possible he could unmask and be much bigger and more influential. Mini is idolized by many of the ’softies.

Dare Obasanjo odds: 20 to 1 - Dare is one of the better existing Microsoft bloggers out there. He’s also controversial like Scoble was at times and, unlike Scoble, he is a developer. For the developer-perspective and being the brains behind RSS Bandit Obasanjo is more action than talk. He’s got the trifecta of skills but might be lacking in popularity points. He has written about being “talked to” about his blog, which tells me that he’s ruffled at least a few feathers internally. He’s one to at least add to your aggregator if you are looking to replace Microsoft developer coverage that Scoble has been providing. Doubtful he will be ‘the’ replacement.

Chris Pirillo odds: 25 to 1 - Wouldn’t surprise me if Chris Pirillo’s name was in the running. Although he has his own Lockergnome gig rolling along, he is in the Seattle area now and if Microsoft would let him do it and do all his own stuff, it could be curious relationship. Despite being friends offline, Pirillo and Scoble are only alike in their love of geek toys and tools and definitely not in blogging style. Let’s also not forget that Pirillo has been a big critic of Microsoft products and yet also is an avid tester at Microsoft. I dropped Valleywag a note to have Chris’s name thrown in the hat.

Ray Ozzie odds: 50 to 1 - Just like Mark Cuban has done with his blogmaverick.com site, Ray Ozzie could step up and make his blog be the centerpiece of Microsoft. This probably won’t happen though considering Ozzie doesn’t update his blog enough. April fool’s day was his last blog entry. No, seriously. Hello Ray, it’s now June. But if he did start updating regularly, wow, what a replacement that would be.

Dave Winer odds: 100 to 1 - while this might seem like a ridiculous suggestion, Dave loves to get involved with things and he’s left several posts complaining that Microsoft hasn’t been listening. He might just go for the gig, if he could have it his way. Of course that’s the part that probably means it will never happen. Still, Winer is a friend of Scoble’s and has the blogger clout to be considered.

Steve Ballmer odds: 250 to 1 - When he’s not allegedly throwing chairs, he could be throwing posts at our aggregators like Randy Johnson fastballs. But similar to Gates and Ozzie, he likely won’t have or make time for the blogosphere except to reference it in interviews.

Bill Gates odds: 1000 to 1 - This would be an awesome time for Bill Gates to enter the blogging fray. It’s not going to happen, but what … if? We know he likes Tablet PCs and could lock up that side of Scoble’s blogging. Yeah, it’s way far-fetched, but for a rookie blogger but veteran technoligist stepping in, he’d rise the fastest of any choice here, I think.

I may add more names. Have to roll it around in my head more, but there’s a few names to chomp on and think about. Care to add your own name and odds below? Have at it.

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RSS Feed comments for this post 7 Comments »

  1. A very interesting post, TDavid. I don’t think Gates or Ballmer could stand the heat in the blogokitchen, though. Even without enabling comments. If I could make the choice for MS, I’d take Chris Pirillo. Straight dope there (sorry, Chris, I didn’t mean to call you a dope). I tend to think it will either be Niall or nobody in particular, much like your forecast.

    Comment by Sterling Camden — June 13, 2006 @ 5:49 pm PST

  2. Ray cannot be bothered to blog, so I’d have to give myself better odds than you’ve given him. I’m clearly no Chris Pirillo, so put me in at 35 to 1. Of course I would have to leave the coolest job in the world, so this is all just an academic exercise anyway.

    Comment by Jeff Barr — June 14, 2006 @ 1:18 am PST

  3. hey tdavid,
    you are forgeting alexbarn’s excellent blog. he currently focuses on attention, but damn he could do an excelent job if he was set loose.

    brady

    Comment by brady — June 14, 2006 @ 9:22 am PST

  4. Hey Jeff, nice talking with you the other day. Good point, Brady. What odds would you give Alex?

    Comment by TDavid — June 14, 2006 @ 9:26 am PST

  5. Then again Barnett is part of the 3,000+ … hmm, does he stick out enough to be considered, really?

    Comment by TDavid — June 14, 2006 @ 9:30 am PST

  6. […] Once a Microsofty that I gave three to one odds being a possible blogger replacement for Scoble, he apparently was (is?) so at odds with official Microsoft RSS blog that when they hotlinked one of his Flickr images without permission, instead of dropping them a note asking them (politely/sternly/whatever) to remove it, he changed the hotlinked image to a semi-pornographic (note: never saw it, just going off Todd Bishop from the Seattle PI’s report below) image. […]

    Pingback by Niall Kennedy uses porn image to teach Microsoft blog hotlinking lesson » Make You Go Hmm — December 4, 2006 @ 9:40 pm PST

  7. […] of 2008, Scoble heads back to Microsoft? Becomes Apple evangelist? No odds will be given on Scoble replacement at Podtech when that […]

    Pingback by From content creation to syndication, Podtech’s last stand at a working business model? » Make You Go Hmm — July 27, 2007 @ 9:12 am PST


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