Or so this blog post intimates anyway that Google has already devalued links in their algorithms and will continue to do so in favor of clickstream:

You can be sure that with the amount of user behaviour that Google have already collected through their myriad of applications, that they are already experimenting with injecting small influences into the ranking process. It’s unlikely to be a major compenent yet as compared to links - but there is an ongoing shift in the balance of power between them.

I wonder: can we be so sure? I disagree that link value will go away anytime soon (never say never). This is what made Google rise from unknown to king.

Things change. Times change. Better algos come and old ones go. I realize that but I don’t think analyzing and incorporating wide sweeping changes based on clickstream is the SE promise land.

How can they trade links for something based completely — or even primarily — on clicks especially when it has already been pointed out that stuff like accidense exists. Clicks are not a failsafe method of proving anything. Clicks can be automated. Clicks can be fraudulent. Clicks are just as fallable and exploited, if not more so, then links. Ask anybody who has ever run and/or been involved with the affiliate owner side of running a pay per click (PPC) program. Google knows this well because they run a PPC program (Adsense).

Therefore I seriously doubt that the clickstream model is the direction Google is ultimately headed. Rather, I think they will utilyze this data to customize the experience by user, hopefully further personalizing the Google search experience individually but not collectively.

For those using Google search personalize, this is already happening. What you click on is being tracked (you can turn this tracking off) and you can easily search back through your own clickstream. I’ve found this handy more than one time, but it would be awfully brazen for Google to assume that my clickstream data is useful to every surfer. And even more brazen that collectively among all users (who turn this tracking on, or authorize tracking in the Google toolbar or Firefox extension, etc) this clickstream data is more indicative of anything except individual checking out sites that look like a match from their search results.

But even that is fallable. Ever clicked on a search result and realized: hey, this is not what I’m looking for? That happens to me almost every day. You know why this happens? The blame it on the user response would be to say they used the wrong query, but the closer reality would be because spammers and over-SEO’d pages that aren’t truly relevant snake their way into the result set. This is what Google and every other search engine is trying to avoid, not embrace.

Links are still important. Links are still vital. Links still matter in the search engines, including Google. Links aren’t going anywhere because links are what makes the web the web. Without links being a huge part of the valuation I think things would be a huge step backwards.

What about the future?
More likely the future holds some sort of organic method of analyzing website relevance — some sort of super advanced artificial or semi-artificial intelligence — will be the next true evolotion in search. The iceberg is there. Human data evaluation and cataloguing has already begun with tagging, although some people have been complaining that even tagging is unreliable. I’m not saying tagging is the answer either, but it is one more set of data with human involvement. Another piece.

Bottom line: Google isn’t going to base their default search entirely or primarily on clickstream. Yes, they will use it as a factor and I’d be surprised if that weren’t the case now (it is). Yes, it is a bit spooky how much clickstream data they are collecting. The fundamental problem, and I’m sure the brainiacs at Google already know this very well, is that not every click is a legitimate and/or even guaranteed to be a human vote. I’m not saying clickstream isn’t part of the ingredients, no, but it’s not the whole soup today, nor will it be tomorrow. Not in its current state.

Now what do you think about clickstream vs. links being used as a measurement of relevancy in search engines?

Did this post make you go hmm?

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