We keep hearing the excuse that the internet, rampant piracy, tricked out home theaters, outrageous prices, greasy popcorn, rude people with cellphones in theaters, etc have caused people to stop going out to the movies in as large numbers. I’ve complained before that the movie experience isn’t what it used to be, however, I never really did any checking on the actual data to see what kind of money is really circulating.

Today I did just that.

I know our own household hasn’t really changed our movie frequency and if anything we’ve spent more on movies since we buy a lot of DVDs, some DVDs that we’ve seen the movie in the theater, so Hollywood is getting a double dip from what they experienced from 1995 - 2000.

From a financial perspective, no adjustment for inflation, I was curious just how much money has been grossed at theaters over the last five years.

By signing up for the site BoxOfficeMojo new users get a free three day subscription to their premier service ($62 USD a year) which for movie hounds has tons of ad-free statistics. I checke out yearly gross stats (link may only be available to premier members, see screenshot):

2005 $6,952.3 YTD thru Oct 23
2004 $9,380.5 (+1.5% over 2003)
2003 $9,239.7 (+0.9% over 2002)
2002 $9,153.6 (+12.7% over 2001)
2001 $8,119.1 (+7.2% over 2000)
2000 $7,575.3

So from the data I’m reviewing, assuming BoxOfficeMojo data is accurate (and that’s a whole other can of worms), box office receipts less inflation have increased every year from 2000-2004, and only this year, 2005, are they on pace to maybe be down overall. However, if they finish the year strong with a blockbuster or two they should best 2004 and not break the trend.

The reality is that the web, home theaters and piracy seem to be having little to no impact on movie gross receipts.

People are still going to movies. It’s not the gross dollars that have suffered, it’s the overall quality of movies that have suffered.

But what about inflation and increased costs?
I didn’t research the stats for DVD revenues since 2000 but those revenues must have continued to escalate over this same time period. Yes, VHS tape revenue has gone down, but there are still people buying VHS, so they receive the replacement DVD business plus the declining VHS revenue.

So what exactly is Hollywood bitching about?

The individual theaters are the ones really hurting
Can’t get weepy for this one either. If movie theaters are truly suffering then maybe it is because Hollywood takes an extortionist-like amount of revenue from ticket sales? I’ve heard it is something like 80% of the gross earned for the first three weeks of a title which is outrageous. If it is the movie theaters that are in trouble, then Hollywood needs to adjust the margins downward so they don’t kill their distribution model. Then again, maybe Hollywood wants to kill the theater distribution model? Doubtful, but perhaps cable and the internet will be the future theater model and we can all make our own microwave popcorn.

Sad for moviegoers if that’s the future.

After seeing the stats and especially after paying over $100 last Friday night for a party of six, I’m not losing any sleep over Hollywood or the theater chains, sorry folks. If they can’t figure out how to best divide the billions they receive (gross) every year, then they deserve to go out of business.

We won’t be left without content.

There will always be indie production, some of which is very good. It might not be as flashy and technical as the blockbuster movies, but it will be from somebody who actually cares about the story, not just the money.

Update 10:27am PST: a reader asked what about the prior ten years? The only decrease year in box office receipt in the last 15 years was from 1990 to 1991. Here is the decade from 1990 - 1999:

1999 $7448.0 (+7.2%)
1998 $6949.0 (+9.2%)
1997 $6365.9 (+7.7%)
1996 $5911.5 (+7.6%)
1995 $5493.5 (+1.8%)
1994 $5396.2 (+4.7%)
1993 $5154.2 (+5.8%)
1992 $4871.0 (+1.4%)
1991 $4803.2 (-4.4%)
1990 $5021.8

Did this post make you go hmm?

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