Current TV syndication model doomed? |

One of my friends was musing about Gilligan (Bob Denver) living on through re-runs and it got me thinking on the whole syndication re-run model on TV. It’s something I’ve pondered before but haven’t written about in significant detail. To me, the system is currently in a state of decay. Historically this has been a lucrative royalty avenue for actors, writers, directors, etc, but I think the way it is currently is going will either die or change radically. Before the Hollywood scenes panics, it could open up new ways of marketing, instead of clawing at a system that needs change.
Why is this system doomed? DVDs and other media selling these classic TV shows are major competition. Also, soon the content will be available via the internet legally, and that will have the same disruption factor as music is going through currently. Why would somebody want to sit through commercials (yeah, you can fast forward past if they are PVR’d, but still) when they can get a high quality version on DVD? You can get the entire first season of many quality classic shows for under 30 bones. I suspect we’ll see this price go even lower as the content becomes more readily available legally through other distribution methods (online, cable, satellite, portable devices, etc).
So what does this mean for actors, writers, directors, etc if they don’t have that syndication revenue? It will defintely make being on TV shows less financially attractive and demand higher pay from studios, plus cuts in DVD and other distribution revenue, which I’m sure agents are already all over for actors. We’ve already seen a move from studios producing more so-called reality content because that is more ripe for quick thrills and doesn’t require as large production budgets. Some produced shows still have the thrills but have you noticed how new shows move almost quickly to DVD? Sure, they still syndicate, but the studios want to capitalize on those hot DVD dollars.
A more likely future scenario that benefits all parties, IMO, is the intergration of TV and the internet. Microsoft has been trying to get into this market, with limited success so far, with its Media Center. It’s being rumored that Vista will include both the Media Center OS and the Tablet PC OS, so no more separate special OS. Since buying the Slingbox I’ve been watching more TV on the PC. I see devices like this which allow us to bring our TV experience on the computer anywhere as a huge future. Bandwidth will become the hurdle, but more and more of that is getting pumped into households across the country. The United States is lacking when it comes to bandwidth compared to some other nations.
Just think for a minute with integrated internet/TV/movie what could be done. A status bar could contain links to actors info on screen via the IMDB or some other DB. Related movies showing in theaters or elsewhere could be linked in the status bar as well as show times. One could order tickets via Fandango or a competitor from a seat. Sports? How about tickets to the next game when your favorite player is on screen and in town? IM chat, email, even VoIP could trivally be integrated into a single device. Vacation? Imagine travel plans being booked by destinations shown on screen. Shows like Las Vegas could present people watching with easy ways to book special rate vacations during the live airing (a bonus for watching live as opposed to PVRing).
There are so many, many possibilities in the imagination behind a world with TV-internet interaction. The reason it hasn’t taken off like this yet is bandwidth and simplicity. Plugging in a computer to a TV has been a hassle to date. It’s not plug in and go like it should be, but it is getting better. We need single boxes like the iMac that have everything integrated so the only thing to do is give the box power, kick back, and use the remote.
And our futuristic remote needs some changing. Some remotes are way too complicated these days. Too many buttons. Time to get rid of all those buttons and make something more simplistic. Why not a remote-mouse hybrid? The mouse works because it is simple and has only a few buttons. Something that can operate by waving it through the air.
There is lots that can be done in making the future TV/internet/computer a reality. I think once the usability gurus, computer vendors, cable and satellite companies and of course Hollywood and the creative types all get on close to the same page (that’s a dream in itself), the opportunities for a new era of revenue sharing will open up. The old model of commercials before, interupting and at the end of content will eventually go away.
In time.
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I have to agree with you completely that the era of reruns is coming to a close (specific cable channels excluded as they seem to thrive on that type stuff). The combining of TV and computers is on it’s way to being the next step as we write imho.
It just makes sense with the amount of time folks are spending online and that will only increase as broadband prices come down and the access situations improve.
Comment by DuhDude — September 8, 2005 @ 12:10 pm PST
Syndication, and other original programming will likely dry up as the distribution model changes. Under todays current model of distribution all programming is cross subsidized. For example the median price of cable or satellite TV is $40.00 per month, while the average viewer watches on average four channels. This means that channels that are not worth a direct payment will disappear along with the programming. Years ago the dollar a channel, ala carte approach was offered and the resulting cable bill was $4.00. This result would reduce programming revenues to 10% and eliminate a major amount of the programming. One result could be fewer choices. To make a program successful more money will have to be spent on marketing that program which will make it more expensive to develop. The changing economic structure will no doubt have an important impact on what we see.
Having said that I have a media room with a projector and I can seamlessly switch between TV and Internet with the remote so I currently enjoy this one system approach you mention in your article. I love it because I surf the Internet while the commercials are playing. Most Plasmas have the same capacity as well so we are getting very close to making the distribution platforms a neutral factor.
Video on Demand will produce a new model and it will be interesting to see how the demand drives the content.
Expect more bizarre and meaningless content. Anything that will get you to gawk. The cotton candy may well disappear.
Comment by Rex — September 18, 2005 @ 7:00 am PST