Scoble has been back from vacation for a few days now and this morning wrote that he’s getting ready for Vista and yet is feeling apprehensive about talking about it:

You know, I’m afraid of writing about Windows Vista. Why? Because we went out so early and created so many lofty expectations last time (big mistake) that I just wanted to crawl in a hole and say nothing. Which is pretty much what I’ve done now for about a year. Plus, Windows is such a big product, with so many people involved (thousands), with such high expectations on it, that saying anything without really understanding all the pieces is just asking for trouble.

That’s one of the most human responses to the Vista situation that I’ve read from any Microsofty to date. Not unusual coming from Scoble, though. Nice to have you back blogging again, Robert.

Whenever I read about Vista lately, I recall Steve Jobs jabbing Microsoft during Apple’s developer conference when he put 12-31-2006 as the date Windows Vista would be released — and then adding that Leopard would be right on Vista’s tail. Microsoft has already said it will be the second half of 2006. I’m guessing this will be around Christmas time next year. Good time to launch any new product as everybody knows that is the height of the retail season.

The other issue is how many people will actually upgrade to Vista right away? I will do so on at least one machine. I wonder how many others will lay in the weeds and wait and see what folks say about it, whether it has features and functions that make it worth the upgrade.

I think Vista will have the momentum like between Windows 95 and Windows XP. Sure, they will class it up and make some huge event out of it (rightly so, considering the length of time since their last OS upgrade), but I think sales-wise it will be more like Windows XP. Maybe not though. Maybe more people are ready for a new OS, hungry for it. Especially if it promises much needed security enhancements.

I’m curious what others think on this one. 1) when will Vista really come out? and 2) what kind of sales will it do? 3) will it be coming at the right time or will it be too late?

Also, how much of the pie will Apple have by then? Dual boot Macs with Windows sound increasingly attractive to me although I’m getting more excited about a tablet with Vista. Whatever actually happens, the latter part of 2006 is going to be very interesting.

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