Today is my scheduled market order deadline (noon PST) in order to make tomorrow’s automatic Tuesday cycle. Earlier this month I had already decided not to buy any more Value Click (VCLK) stock and replace with Microsoft (MSFT) instead. The more I’ve thought about this, though, and mulled over the company historical, current and potential future strengths and weaknesses, I’ve changed my mind and am going to buy Apple (AAPL) instead.

Why?

Take a look at the graph pictured above showing the financial performance of MSFT (red) vs. AAPL (blue) stock over the last five years. Apple has been more innovative than Microsoft the last five years and the stock is reflecting that. The iPod / iTunes deal has been very successful for Apple and doesn’t seem to show any signs of slowing. The introduction of the Mac Mini has made it possible to more affordably buy an Apple computer. Tiger OS X 10.4 is coming out on 4/29 and has some 200+ features. I’ll be at the Apple store or online at/around this day. I’m looking forward to buying from Apple.

What about Microsoft? They have Xbox 2 coming out — maybe — by year end. Hopefully we’ll find out more on this via MTV and E3 next month, maybe. The Xbox division has slowly been making its way to profitability in a cutthroat console gaming war with Sony, but Sony just released a gem of a portable machine. The rumours are out that Sony’s P3 specs blow Xbox 2 out of the water, so will Xbox 2 be more powerful? Maybe. Longhorn? We are supposed to get this in 2006 — maybe. The Tablet PC is supposed to re-emerge in (more) retail stores by July. Maybe. Visual Studio 2005 was due out but now might not make it until 2006, maybe. Maybe.

Do you see a trend with Microsoft here? A lot of maybes, shipment delays and unanswered questions. This leads this investor (me) into pause mode when considering buying their stock, whereas with Apple I see a good trend over a lengthy five year period, some confirmed product upgrades and launches and the future looking brighter.

Bottom line is I’m not as eager to be buying new products/services from Microsoft as I am Apple at the present time. Despite Scoble’s best attempts to blog a better face for the company, it really hasn’t made much of any difference in the overall stock value. Maybe this is because Scoble has hit some doubles and triples with geeks, early adopters and the like but not so much with the majority of people buying new products and services? I don’t know the answer here, but I do believe that Scoble has put a friendlier, more approachable face on Microsoft than anybody else over there has done in recent memory. Verizon could sure use a Scoble blogging, especially after their CEO makes wild, unnecessary statements like this.

If one is only looking at the numbers it sure appears like Steve Jobs and Apple thumbing their nose up at blogging pretty much to date has been a successful business strategy. I don’t like it, and I’m sure readers who are bloggers won’t like it either, but just look at the numbers.

This is your problem, Microsoft, now listen up: please fix the shipment delays, get your existing and prospective customers excited about something new to actually buy somewhere instead of beta test and the trend can turn. Articles like the one that Dvorak did at PC Magazine about how Microsoft’s practice of buying up patents could be its undoing, aren’t helping. The patent game is a very risky move, but I can see how Microsoft is tired of being sued so much.

None of this is to say that I won’t buy Microsoft stock in the future, but for now I’m holding off until we hear more about some of their products and confirmed shipping dates. They can’t hang their hats on the likes of Halo forever and MSN Spaces, although seemingly a success with a crowd of non early-adopters, is going to have to do much more than push a bunch of tiny Volvo ads to make any serious money and spur on an increased infusion of consumer spending.

Did this post make you go hmm?

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